
Don’t Let the 2026 Hurricane Forecast Lull You Into Complacency, Remember Andrew
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins with a forecast that may sound, at first glance, like permission to exhale. The Pacific is still officially in ENSO-neutral conditions, but NOAA says El Niño is likely to emerge soon and continue through the winter. IRI’s May update describes the Pacific as rapidly transitioning toward El Niño. Why does that matter? Because El Niño conditions often increase wind shear over the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to form and strengthen.
That helps explain why NOAA is calling for a “below-normal” to “near-normal” Atlantic season, with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. Colorado State University is forecasting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Those are not frightening numbers by South Florida standards. They’re also not a promise of safety.
Miamians should know, lowering our guard because of these numbers is a mistake.
In 1992, the Atlantic season was also “quiet” by the numbers. The National Weather Service notes that the outlook called for a below-normal season, and the season ultimately produced only seven named storms and four hurricanes. That season was also connected to an El Niño episode, though those conditions had weakened toward neutral by the time Hurricane Andrew reached South Florida. On paper, this was not the kind of season that looked destined to change people’s lives forever.
And then came Andrew.
Andrew formed in mid-August, struggled for a time, then strengthened with terrible speed. By the early morning hours of August 24, it reached South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane packing record-breaking winds. Its path through southern Dade County was narrow compared with some storms, but within that narrowness lay ruin. The National Hurricane Center described Andrew’s impact from Kendall south through Homestead and Florida City as extreme. The storm destroyed more than 25,000 homes and damaged more than 100,000 others. In Dade County alone, NOAA says fierce winds damaged or destroyed 125,000 homes and left at least 160,000 people homeless.
Those numbers are large, but they still do not fully convey what Andrew was. They don’t say what it felt like to step outside and find that familiar streets had become unrecognizable. They don’t describe neighborhoods flattened into debris fields, the long lines for critical supplies, the heat that came in the aftermath, the weeks without power and the inky darkness at night, or the stunned silence of people trying to make sense of what remained.
Books and survivor accounts from Andrew return again and again to the same truth: disaster was not only the wind speed. It was the tearing of ordinary life. It was the moment when a home, a workplace, a school, a small business, a pantry, or a neighborhood—the things we hold most precious—suddenly became utterly vulnerable. That’s why Andrew still belongs in our hurricane conversations, especially in a year when the forecast may tempt us to relax.
Some may say that we are “due” for a major hurricane landfall but science doesn’t work that way. NOAA explains hurricane return periods as averages across long spans of time, not a countdown clock. Storms don’t keep calendars or neat routes.
But history is in some sense a very wise teacher. It reminds us that South Florida sits in the middle of hurricane alley and that the risk is historically very real. It reminds us that long quiet stretches can make us feel safer than we are and blur our perception of risk. These long stretches of good fortune can soften memory, delay our planning, and make preparation seem like something that can be deferred until later, until it is perhaps too late. But remembering Andrew is a rebuke to that kind of thinking. Preparation is needed now, not later.
For families, preparation means checking water, food, medicine, batteries, flashlights, documents, evacuation plans, pet needs, and neighbors who may need extra help.
For businesses, it means thinking ahead about employees, payroll, operations, customers, facilities, insurance, communications, and how quickly a disruption can ripple through a community. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation recently found that 69% of small businesses have no disaster plan, and 36% could not pay employees beyond one month after a disaster. In a storm, those are not abstract business risks. They are families, paychecks, jobs, and local recovery.
At Bridge To Hope, we also know that the impacts of storms aren’t distributed evenly. Families already living close to the edge can lose food, wages, transportation, power, and access to medicine very quickly. A quiet forecast may lower the odds of a busy season, but it does not lower the value of preparing early.
So we pray this season is uneventful. We hope every storm turns away. We hope the forecasts prove generous.
And we prepare anyway.
Not because we’re afraid, but because we remember. Not because panic helps anyone, but because care does.
Please do not lower your guard. Check your plan. Help someone else check theirs.
Because Love Does.
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